South China Morning Post
Trade winds are blowing against Asean
27th November 2007
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Sceptics were not disappointed. For all the good intentions and assurances of a new era, Asean members agreed on a flimsy charter, and a weak plan for an economic community, at their summit in Singapore last week.
The scarcity of detail and measures for enforcement belie the rhetoric of building a strong, cohesive, orderly community across Southeast Asia. The reluctance to take bold steps reflects the reality of a diverse gathering of mostly inward-looking states still engaged in, to varying degrees, nation-building and heavily pre-occupied with domestic matters.
If interests are revealed by where people put their money, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ranks low on its members' priorities. A few hundred people run the secretariat in Jakarta, barely enough to prepare briefings and arrange meetings. Evidently not enough to update the website.
Little has been said about expanding the annual budget. But that is surely going to be the minimum requirement if Asean is to have a hope of implementing what it promises in the charter and the economic community, due by 2015.
Were trade between members stronger, they would almost certainly be more enthusiastic about building a comprehensive economic community, with institutions empowered to write regulations and penalise states and companies.
Alas, Southeast Asia is not Europe, where states have willingly pooled some sovereignty to build powerful institutions for the greater good. Despite its detractors, the European Union is without doubt the most successful project to create a community of states, partly because of favourable patterns of trade. That reflects strong foundations. The law is paramount in all states, democracy and liberal economies are a given and corruption is in check.
Security brought five developing countries together 40 years ago to form Asean, in an effort to boost economic growth and fend off communism. With the end of communism, it might have been time to quietly retire Asean.
Instead, moves were made in the 1990s - after Brunei joined in 1984 - to bring on board Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, without setting real conditions for membership. This was a bid to create a front against further meddling by external powers.
Concern about the fast-growing economic power of China and, more recently, India has been the impetus for the charter and the economic community. But building a stronger, closer Southeast Asia seemingly depends on trade, which remains pretty thin among Asean members. Instead members' bilateral trade is growing most rapidly with China - and picking up with India.
So, it is not surprising that many governments in Southeast Asia put little effort into Asean. Their economies are growing nicely, and political elites are doing well and face little pressure for regional integration from their electorates - where they exist. The winds of trade are blowing in favour of Southeast Asia and against Asean.
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