How times change. Only a few months ago, the junta in Bangkok was clear that no good could come if Mr Thaksin Shinawatra, the Prime Minister toppled in last September's coup, ended his exile in London. Mr Thaksin, seemingly playing on the generals' insecurity, often hinted his return was not far off.
However the junta became visibly more confident after a tribunal in late May dissolved Thai Rak Thai — the party founded by Mr Thaksin with his telecommunications fortune — and banned 111 members, including Mr Thaksin and an A-list of veteran politicians, from politics. Fears of huge protests and violent clashes came to nothing.
The situation has continued to swing their way. On Sunday, a referendum approved the new Constitution, which will crimp the role of MPs and see state-appointed senators outnumber elected senators in a more powerful Senate.
Having destroyed his party and pushed through a Constitution that stacks the cards in their favour, the generals are now keen to bring Mr Thaksin back from London to face charges of concealing assets and corruption.
Immediately after the plebiscite, prosecutors announced that they were stepping up preparations for launching extradition proceedings against Mr Thaksin. An arrest warrant was put out for him earlier this month in a case alleging abuse of power, over the sale of a valuable piece of land on Bangkok's Ratchadpisek Road to his wife, whose arrest is also demanded by the Thai courts. Charges are also looming in an assets concealment case.
Serving that warrant in the United Kingdom, where Mr Thaksin lives, will require extradition. Little surprise then that Mr Thaksin is now telling anybody willing to listen that his life and a fair trial are at risk while the generals hold power. British courts rarely approve extradition requests in cases with political overtones to countries where courts are prone to corruption, and judges, not juries, decide verdicts, such as Thailand.
Only in April, Mr Pin Chakkaphak, a once-high-flying financier blamed in part by the Bank of Thailand for the crash of 1997, won an extradition case in London partly because he argued a free and fair trial was not possible in Thailand without a jury.
Military rule, failure to protect witnesses and a poor human rights record — which worsened considerably while Mr Thaksin was Prime Minister between 2001 and last year according to monitors like the Asian Human Rights Commission in Hong Kong and Human Rights Watch in New York — may make Bangkok's case harder.
Matters were not helped in June when army commander and junta leader, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin — who led the coup against Mr Thaksin — said the exiled tycoon's security could not be assured if he returned after a July deadline. Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont quickly moved to personally guarantee Mr Thaksin's well-being.
As things stand, Mr Thaksin's prospects for defeating the extradition bid appear promising. A judgment in his favour before the junta steps down after elections in December, though embarrassing, would allow the generals to scapegoat the British courts for their failure to jail Mr Thaksin.
If the case drags on after the next election, prospects may shift depending on the priorities of the next elected government. Thai politicians' enthusiasm for talking about cleaning up government, and jailing top politicians and officials for corruption, is rarely matched by action and results. Moreover, a coalition government seems likely to follow the next election under the new Constitution. Coalitions usually collapse within a few years in Thailand, their members too busy horse-trading and squabbling to deliver strong government, a stark contrast to Mr Thaksin's rule.
Furthermore, the publicity surrounding an extradition case may even help Mr Thaksin, quite possibly touching the hearts of ordinary people whose votes made him Prime Minister. Mr Thaksin in court, albeit a British court, would be a spectacle certain to splash the front pages of Thailand's press, complementing his presence on the back pages courtesy of Manchester City, the English football team he bought in June which has started the season well.
Ironically, though the generals have pushed the game back towards Mr Thaksin's penalty box with a few long-distance volleys, he still seems odds on to keep scoring points. Much can still happen before the final whistle blows. Mr Thaksin's former allies are already shuffling closer under the guise of a variety of new political parties.
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