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Thailand: Was coup worth it?

19th September 2007

A year ago, the world watched dumbfounded as Thais offered flowers, food and hugs to troops who had rolled into Bangkok with tanks, ending a democracy that began with the bloody demise of the last military regime in 1992.

With a nod and a wink from palace courtiers, Thai generals moved against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra while he was in the United States, days before he was due to re-shuffle the military command and possibly sideline the generals who led the coup.

On seizing power, the junta vowed to tackle corruption, restore order and revamp democracy. However, the mood now is one of apathy and disdain due to dithering and missteps by the new government.

Nowhere is this more apparent than with the economy, which was ebbing before the coup. Political jitters have caused many firms to postpone investment. Consumers have not been spending freely, spooked by coup rumours, job worries and fuel prices.

Regulations introduced to temper the rising baht just before Christmas last year backfired, triggering the stock exchange's biggest one-day loss last December.

Since then, the government has left the baht alone despite job losses as export factories, especially makers of clothes and furniture, shut down. This hands-off approach is risky. Unemployment and discontent could accelerate dangerously if mortgage woes in the US make for a frugal Christmas and possible recession.

Foreigners are also upset about plans to close loopholes they have long used to own land and control firms in service industries. Whether the law is enforced remains to be seen. Nevertheless, the damage has been done at a time when Cambodia and Vietnam are seen as attractive alternatives.

Few military rulers score top marks for economic policy, not surprising given that their expertise lies in fighting wars. But the insurgency in southern Thailand burns fiercely, claiming 2,500 lives since January 2004.

Rebels who want an Islamic state for ethnic Malays appear to have learned from successful insurgencies elsewhere. But their tactics may provoke a Buddhist backlash and push many ordinary Malays to their cause.

Troops and police lack the doctrine, training and equipment to restore order and force rebel leaders to negotiate. General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, chairman of the junta and a Muslim himself, admitted it may take a generation to restore peace.

Allegations of graft against Mr Thaksin and his cronies made the coup necessary, said the generals. One year on however, charges have only been filed in a few cases, making promises of swift justice look hollow.

Neither has justice been served for victims of security forces and insurgents, or the 3,500 killed during Mr Thaksin's drug crackdown in 2003 and 2004. Even the case of Mr Somchai Neelapaichit, a human rights lawyer kidnapped in broad daylight in Bangkok three years ago, remains unsolved. He has not been seen since.

The junta has made more progress on democracy, introducing a new Constitution albeit one that strengthens the military's hand in politics while curtailing prospects for a strong, united government.

Military clout and the Constitution may not prove strong enough in the face of formidable party machines being put together for the general election on Dec 23. If a pro-military party fails to dominate the new government, trouble may loom for the army.

Pardons are being mooted for 111 politicians, including Mr Thaksin, who were banned from politics in May. Mr Thaksin's return could be problematic for the army as he remains very popular and influential.

The junta's rule has brought few tangible benefits and has probably created long-term political instability. Theirs may turn out to have been a coup carried out in vain, one that begets another coup.