South China Morning Post
Thailand: Final whistle on Thaksin's return?
6th July 2007
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How times change. Only a few months ago the junta in Bangkok was clear that no good could come if Thaksin Shinawatra, the prime minister toppled in last September's coup, ended his exile in London. Thaksin, seemingly playing on the generals' insecurity, often hinted his return was not far off.
However, the mood has changed since a tribunal in late May dissolved Thai Rak Thai, the party founded by Thaksin with his telecommunications fortune, and banned 111 members, including Thaksin, from politics for five years. Fears of huge protests and violent clashes came to nothing.
The generals are now itching for Thaksin to come home from London to face charges of concealing assets and corruption. Meanwhile, the globetrotting telecoms tycoon has lost his enthusiasm for returning to Thailand.
He was not in Bangkok to hear charges in an assets concealment case on June 29. If he fails to attend three times an arrest warrant looms. Serving that in Britain, where Thaksin lives, will require extradition.
Little surprise then that Thaksin is now telling anybody willing to listen that his life and a fair trial are at risk while the generals hold power. British courts rarely approve extradition requests, in cases with political overtones, to countries where judges, not juries, decide verdicts, such as Thailand.
In April, Pin Chakkaphak, a once high-flying financier the Bank of Thailand blames in part for the crash of 1997, won an extradition case in London partly because he argued a free and fair trial was not possible without a jury.
Military rule, failure to protect witnesses and a poor human rights record, which worsened while Thaksin was prime minister between 2001 and last year, may not help Bangkok's case either.
Matters were not helped in June when army commander and junta leader General Sondhi Boonyaratkalin - who led the coup against Thaksin - said the exiled tycoon's security could not be assured if he returned after a July deadline. Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont quickly moved to personally guarantee Thaksin's well being.
As things stand then, Thaksin's prospects for defeating extradition appear promising. A judgment in his favour before the junta steps down, after elections sketched in for some time between November and January, though embarrassing, would allow the generals to blame the British courts for their failure to jail Thaksin.
If the case drags on after the election, prospects may shift, depending on the priorities of the next elected government. Thai politicians' enthusiasm for talking about cleaning up government, and jailing top politicians and officials for corruption is rarely matched by action and results.
Furthermore, the publicity surrounding an extradition case may even help Thaksin, quite possibly touching the hearts of ordinary people whose votes made him prime minister.
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