South China Morning Post
A return to a more democratic Thailand?
21st December 2007
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On Sunday, Thais are due to vote for a civilian government to replace the military dictatorship which came to power following a bloodless coup in September last year.
The election marks the final phase of an attempt by the coup-makers to roll back politics to the mid-1990s when parties were weak, voters could be ignored and policy was left largely in the hands of bureaucrats subject to the influence of powerful factions.
After ousting popular prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the junta scrapped the bold 1997 constitution. It had been written, with public consultation, to deliver strong government and, in due course, more responsive politics.
The junta's hope is that its new electoral system will produce a weak coalition government. This may come to pass. The conservative Democrat Party, which is likely to come second in the election, might muster a broad, but inevitably weak, coalition with enough seats to form a government.
But it will be a challenge because the People's Power Party is widely expected to poll the most votes, putting it in a position to lead a narrower, but stronger, coalition. It might even win enough votes to overwhelm provisions that stack the odds against a one-party government in the military's gerrymandered electoral system.
People's Power (formed after the effective disbanding of the former ruling party, Thai Rak Thai) is popular because, in the eyes of voters, it represents Thaksin. He is well liked by some in the white-collar minority for his "can-do" attitude and among the blue-collar majority because of his reforms including affordable health care and credit pools for villages.
That approach was a first; it recognised the latent power of voters and fundamentally changed the nature of Thai politics. Consequently, farmers, factory workers and labourers are now more likely to weigh a party's policies and track record when voting. If further proof were needed, every party contesting Sunday's election is promising policies inspired by Thai Rak Thai.
How far the coup-makers will go to deny a People's Power victory remains to be seen. A backroom deal that avoids retribution while leaving the party free to rule as it pleases cannot be discounted. Vote-rigging could also be on the cards.
Victory for People's Power would publicly reaffirm Thaksin's popularity, much to the coup-makers' chagrin.
It would indicate that the political era which began in 1997 has survived the coup: one in which an evolving national polity hands government to parties offering policies attuned to the problems of the majority, and not just for cash and local promises like a new road or clinic.
It would also be a sign that the right to rule - that is, power - is gradually moving away from those favoured by birth to those able to serve up a winning product in public participatory politics. It might even result in a robust system worthy of democracy.
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